Cheltenham, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

908
FXUS61 KPHI 131856
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
156 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The risk of light rain changing to light snow, followed by
rapidly falling temperatures and leading to icy roads, has
become a greater concern for Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A storm system will bring light rain which will change to
snow before ending Wednesday night, especially north and west
of I-95.

2) Rapidly falling temperatures early Thursday morning, combined
with the prior light rain/snow, may result in icy roads.

3) The risk of wintry weather through the rest of the period
remains low, but cold temperatures mean any changes could result
in a return of the chance of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A storm system will bring light rain which will
change to snow before ending Wednesday night, especially north
and west of I-95.

Low pressure will strengthen as it passes northeastward across
the region Wednesday night. Light rain is likely to develop as
it crosses the region, with guidance currently focusing the
majority of precip northwest of I-95. As the low continues
strengthening and then starts moving northeast of the region,
this will bring the risk of lingering rain changing to snow
before ending. This is most likely in the southern Poconos,
where around an inch of snow is currently forecast, but enough
potential exists further south to include a light accumulation
(less than an inch) through most of the remainder of the
forecast area, though this is more likely north and west of I-95
than southeast of it. Temps will start warm, but will cool as
the system moves through. Precip likely ends before dawn
Thursday morning region-wide, though some light snow showers may
linger in the Poconos much of the day Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rapidly falling temperatures early Thursday
morning, combined with the prior light rain/snow, may result in
icy roads.

While precip is expected to have ended before dawn
Thursday, resulting in a technically dry rush hour, the gusty
northwest winds behind the system will likely push temps down
into the 20s region-wide by dawn. Thus, anything that doesn`t
dry out has a shot at becoming icy, and this risk is higher for
areas where snow accumulates before precip ends. As mentioned
above, this risk is highest in the Poconos, and generally higher
anywhere northwest of I-95 than southeast of it, the risk is
non-zero across nearly the entire region. For those few who
ventured out shortly after dawn on New Years Day, this may not
be dissimilar; roads were extremely icy in many areas. The big
difference here is that instead of a holiday, Thursday is a
standard weekday, so the result could be much more significant
from a traffic standpoint. Making matters more complicated will
be the likelihood of rain before any changeover, which may wash
off any pre-treatment of surfaces. One fortunate aspect is that,
unlike before New Years Day, temps will be averaging milder
today and Wednesday, so pavement will be a little less inclined
to flash freeze, but the rapid air temp drop makes this a risk
nonetheless.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The risk of wintry weather through the rest of
the period remains low, but cold temperatures mean any changes
could result in a return of the chance of snow.

A generally cold pattern looks likely through the weekend into
early next week. Pieces of energy which could, theoretically,
combine and result in a risk of wintry weather (given conducive
temps) are currently progged to remain generally separate,
keeping our region in a relative dry slot as they veer either
northwest or southeast of us. Currently have just slight chance
to low end chance POPs for the weekend period because of this
relative separate of energy. We`ll need to keep a close eye out
given the cold will be present, but at this time the risk of
significant wintry weather beyond Thursday through early next
week appears low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of Today: VFR with high clouds increasing. Southwest winds
up to 10 knots. High confid.

Tonight; VFR. High clouds with mid clouds increasing. LLWS
developing with 40 to 45 kts at 020. South to Southwest winds 5
to 10 knots. Gusts 15 to 20 kts possible KACY. Medium/high
confid.

Wednesday... VFR. Mostly mid-level clouds with lower clouds
late, mostly N/W. A small chance for a rain shower KRDG/KABE
after 18Z. (Low confid in this however). South to Southwest
winds around 10 knots. Medium confid overall.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Restrictions likely developing Wednesday
night in low clouds and periods of light rain/snow. Gusty WNW
winds developing late Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR. Gusty WNW winds.

Friday...VFR. Gusty SW winds possible. LLWS possible Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR most likely, but small chance of sub-
VFR if light rain/snow develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will increase tonight as low pressure moves by
well to the north. Southwest winds will gust 25 to 30 kts
tonight and Wednesday morning. The SCA flag is therefore
continued. Fair weather tonight and Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Small Craft Advisory
conditions expected with WNW winds 20-30 kts, and a brief
period of gale force wind gusts possible.

Thursday night...Freezing spray possible. Seas may linger near
5 feet across the Atlantic waters.

Friday through Sunday...SCA conditions likely at times. A slight
chance of rain and snow Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OHara/RCM
AVIATION...OHara/RCM
MARINE...OHara/RCM